Why do Black Friday and Christmas require advance planning?
Black Friday and Christmas are periods of increased activity for many retail, e-commerce, logistics and distribution businesses. The rise in orders, higher customer footfall and the concentration of activity into just a few weeks may call for different preparation from what is needed for the rest of the year.
According to SIBS Analytics, the value of online purchases on Black Friday 2025 was 126% higher than the daily average for November before Black Week. During the Christmas season, between 1 and 24 December, the number of online purchases rose by 19% and their value grew by 14% compared with the same period in 2024.
These indicators show how demand can become concentrated in certain periods, although the impact on human resource needs varies from company to company.
Workforce planning should therefore start by analysing the expected demands on the operation and the capacity of teams to meet them.
How can you assess your teams’ capacity to respond to increased demand?
Anticipating human resource needs means understanding how increased activity affects day-to-day work. A company may need to strengthen certain roles, reorganise working hours or develop skills, even when the total number of workers seems sufficient.
The first step is to identify where the greatest pressure is expected. Growth in orders may increase the workload in the warehouse and in dispatch, without causing equivalent changes in other areas. Similarly, longer operating hours may require greater shift coverage, even if the daily volume of activity does not increase in the same proportion.
From expected demand to available capacity
The analysis should start from a concrete question: what will need to be done differently, or in greater quantity, during the period of increased activity?
From there, the company can compare that requirement with the resources it already has. Some of the most useful aspects to consider are:
- expected workload;
- coverage of working hours and shifts;
- actual team availability;
- roles critical to the operation;
- skills needed to carry out the tasks;
- expected duration of the increase in activity.
For example, in a distribution company, the increase in orders during Black Friday may be concentrated in order picking and dispatch. The existing team may be able to handle the usual volume but lack the capacity to keep to the same lead times during the peak. This analysis makes it possible to assess whether the answer lies in reorganising tasks, adjusting shifts or strengthening the team in a specific area.
When should team preparation begin?
Preparation should begin early enough for resources to be available and ready when activity increases. The timeframe depends on the roles to be covered, the size of the operation and the time needed for recruitment and onboarding.
Planning should work back from the date by which the team needs to be operational. From that point, it is important to allow for the time needed to select candidates, formalise hiring and ensure onboarding.
Even once hiring has been completed, new workers may need to become familiar with internal procedures, systems and equipment before they can carry out their duties independently.
Workforce planning should therefore take into account not only the date of peak demand, but also the time needed to prepare teams.
Is the need seasonal or does it reveal a structural problem?
Not every capacity shortfall identified during a period of increased demand is caused by that rise in activity. A peak in activity can also make an existing problem more visible.
When the need is seasonal
A need tends to be seasonal when it is directly linked to a predictable period, increases during a specific campaign or season and decreases when volumes return to normal levels.
In these cases, the response may involve temporarily reorganising tasks and working hours or bringing in additional workers for a limited period, provided that the options adopted suit the operation and comply with the applicable working conditions.
When there are signs of a structural need
The situation calls for a different analysis when the overload already existed before the peak, continues after it or results from lasting changes in volume, channels or the way work is organised.
Vacancies that remain unfilled, teams that are regularly overloaded or critical roles concentrated in a few people may also indicate that the need goes beyond seasonality.
Distinguishing between these two situations avoids responding to a permanent problem with a merely temporary solution or creating a permanent structure for a need that lasts only a few weeks.
How should you respond to the human resource needs identified?
Once the needs have been identified, the response should consider where capacity is lacking, how long it will be needed for and whether the available resources can be adjusted.
When the team has the necessary skills but the work is unevenly distributed, it may make sense to reorganise tasks or adjust shift coverage. Internal mobility can also be an alternative when there are professionals available and prepared to take on other roles.
If existing capacity is not enough to respond to a temporary increase in activity, the company may consider using seasonal workers or temporary staffing solutions, taking into account the duration of the need, the roles to be performed and the applicable requirements. Where the additional demand persists, however, a recruitment and selection approach geared towards long-term needs may be justified.
When recruiting for Christmas, it is important to define in advance the roles to be reinforced, the expected working period and when professionals need to be ready to start. In this context, Timing supports companies through Temporary Staffing and Recruitment and Selection solutions, tailored to the needs identified and the profiles sought.
Did you find this topic helpful?
Anticipating periods of increased demand makes it possible to prepare teams and choose responses suited to the duration and characteristics of the needs identified.
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